Wyniki 1-1 spośród 1 dla zapytania: authorDesc:"Michal Patak"

Prognozowanie popytu w przemyśle chemicznym DOI:10.15199/62.2018.8.5


  Decyzje kierownicze w firmach w mniejszym lub większym stopniu opierają się na szacunkach dotyczących przyszłości, przede wszystkim przyszłego prognozowanego popytu. Dlatego prognozowanie to stanowi ważne narzędzie do zarządzania przedsiębiorstwem, nie tylko dla podejmowania trafnych decyzji, lecz także efektywnego zarządzania pozostałymi procesami biznesowymi. The managerial decisions in companies are more or less based on the estimate of the future, mostly on the future demand forecasts. Therefore, demand forecasting represents an important business management tool, not only to come to reasonable decisions, but also to manage the other business processes effectively. A typical demand forecasting process used in the chemical industry consists of multiple phases. The factors affecting the demand are determined, the input data are collected, the forecasting methods are selected, and, finally, the forecasts are developed and evaluated. The selection of an appropriate forecasting method is a critical step in the demand planning process. It can have many consequences. Statistical forecasting methods based on time series analysis are more and more applied in practice thanks to a quick development of information technologies. Their indisputable advantage is the capability of unbiased processing of a large amount of data1). However, the unexpected changes in the development of the demand (not considered in the forecasting model) frequently result in creation of inaccurate forecasts2). Judgmental forecasting methods are based on the knowledge, experience, and intuition of human forecasters. They play a significant role in forecasting the demand for new products3), in the case of substantial changes of the market, or in forecasting the impact of promotions on the demand4). Within judgmental forecasting, forecasts might be distorted as a result of subjective opinions, wishes, or subjective interest of the forecasters, which can be consid[...]

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